odds not balancing when backtesting

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olliep3
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Posts: 14
Joined: Fri Feb 12, 2021 11:01 pm

odds not balancing when backtesting

Post by olliep3 »

ive just downloaded 3 years data trying to find an angle to work with.
the first thing that ive noticed is the odds are nowhere near 100%.
if you look at the screenshot the first game the over is 1.92,surely the under should be 2.06 or 2.08 with the spread,not 1.88.
on the second game if you add the over and under odds it adds up to 4.09,you can make a profit on that without gambling,its overround.
i feel now that if i try to analyse 3 years worth of data i will get inaccurate results.
any help would be appreciated
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cgmbet
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Re: odds not balancing when backtesting

Post by cgmbet »

I am not sure I understand,
but the odds never will be 1.92 and 2.08. Where is the bookmaker's juice? They would have closed the business very fast :)

1.92 - 1.88 looks perfectly normal to me but I will check
Regarding the second problem Here is what I found on Betexplorer.

I can not claim that data is 100% accurate for 15 years but I am open to fix any issue the users report

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olliep3
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Re: odds not balancing when backtesting

Post by olliep3 »

thanks for the feedback,but if you look at the screenshot it says that the odds are coming from betfair.
betfairs odds are as near to 100% than any bookmaker so the juice is in the betfair commission,ive added a screenshot of a betfair market today the back market is 100.5% and the lay market is 99.5% hope you can see where i am coming from
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example of 2.5 over under market.PNG
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olliep3
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Posts: 14
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Re: odds not balancing when backtesting

Post by olliep3 »

thanks for the feedback,but if you look at the first screenshot it says that the odds are coming from betfair(look at the box above the refresh button).
betfairs odds are as near to 100% than any bookmaker so the juice is in the betfair commission,ive added a screenshot of a betfair market today the back market is 100.5% and the lay market is 99.5% hope you can see where i am coming from
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example of 2.5 over under market.PNG
example of 2.5 over under market.PNG (30.49 KiB) Viewed 457 times
cgmbet
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Posts: 121
Joined: Tue Oct 20, 2015 10:15 am

Re: odds not balancing when backtesting

Post by cgmbet »

I see your confusion now and I think it is my mistake because I did not make it more visible or maybe I did not explain better.

The software is not oriented to odds analyses. The odds are stored only for user orientation. It is possible to add a kind of odds analyser but would be much more expensive.

For the historical results are stored in the database only Pinnacle closing odds (where available) or Bet365. Most of the odds from the last years are from Pinnacle, closing odds.

For the upcoming games, there are also Pinnacle, Bet365 or Betfair (the SPORTSBOOK not EXCHANGE!), received every a few hours. Again, I can make it live odds but with big costs for me and for users.

I hope this is clear now and this explains our confusion.

Probably I will block the button for playing games to remain on Pinnacle
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