Away Wins

Here you may present your strategy. Comments and suggestions are welcomed.
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BlockFHatter
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Joined: Thu Nov 28, 2019 9:01 pm

Away Wins

Post by BlockFHatter » Thu Mar 12, 2020 12:06 pm

Hello folks,
Can anyone help. I have a variety of strategies set up to assist with identifying Home wins, away wins, Over 2.5 and 1.5 goals for the match, whether the match first half will have under 1.5 goals for example.
All appear to be producing some good consistent results. But one area where I am really struggling is identifying away wins. I've tried to select Wins for each of the home and away teams, high level for the away team low level for the home, or matches not won and not lost etc for the respective teams but nothing I have come up with produces a good nor consistent return.

Anyone having any success or suggestions that I can try to get a reasonable list of possible away wins.

pamabo76
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Joined: Mon Aug 20, 2018 5:08 pm

Re: Away Wins

Post by pamabo76 » Fri Aug 28, 2020 9:25 pm

What strategie do you use?

BlockFHatter
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Re: Away Wins

Post by BlockFHatter » Fri Sep 11, 2020 1:26 pm

Well what I thought I'd do was to download the data for wins at home and way plus the final score and then pivot the data to identify those matches that resulted in Away wins based on each teams rating from the data. I have just over a years worth of data.

The indication was that 30% of the matches resulted in an away win. I should add that I didn't use the first 5 matches from any league, so if you look at the round column on the attached sheet you will not find anything lower than 6.

I pivoted the data based on the away teams values and also the home teams values and then grouped the results to see if there were any ranges that were more fertile. It appeared to indicate that if the Home Teams rating was less than 20 it was a decent hunting ground that could yield a strike rate of 37% to 40% But so far it is very much in the lower 30%'s.

I have quite a success with O2.5 goals and 1st and 2nd half goals but results far less so.
Attachments
Aways.xlsx
(1.24 MiB) Downloaded 52 times

BlockFHatter
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Posts: 17
Joined: Thu Nov 28, 2019 9:01 pm

Re: Away Wins

Post by BlockFHatter » Fri Oct 02, 2020 10:38 am

Well I ran my data for away wins again as I realised I may have extracted the data incorrectly. I only use games if more than round 5+ and do not include games where the home or away teams score (not goals but the % calculated by CGM) is zero. Back data suggests this is getting there but there maybe further investigation to exclude further non productive matches.

I attach the spreadsheet with data from Sept 2019 and the criteria I use. If anyone wishes to add anything. Please comment.
Attachments
Aways.xlsx
(743.9 KiB) Downloaded 22 times
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