Big improvements

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cemkaynak
Experienced
Posts: 42
Joined: Mon Mar 20, 2017 5:14 pm

Big improvements

Post by cemkaynak » Wed Aug 29, 2018 2:07 am

Hello Gents,

I'm sure last few days all of us playing with our new toy and trying to catch some edges, for me; I've already found few for example I see that under certain conditions home team has 51.28 win rate in 1909 games during 1st january till 30th June which gives me 4.27% profit, I'm sure some of you already found this kind of edges, I'd like to discuss your opinions as well, are we getting closer to finding the holy grail or those are only seasonal temporary streaks.

Quantumunicorn
Professional
Posts: 52
Joined: Sat Nov 04, 2017 10:43 pm

Re: Big improvements

Post by Quantumunicorn » Fri Aug 31, 2018 8:15 pm

cemkaynak wrote:
Wed Aug 29, 2018 2:07 am
Hello Gents,

I'm sure last few days all of us playing with our new toy and trying to catch some edges, for me; I've already found few for example I see that under certain conditions home team has 51.28 win rate in 1909 games during 1st january till 30th June which gives me 4.27% profit, I'm sure some of you already found this kind of edges, I'd like to discuss your opinions as well, are we getting closer to finding the holy grail or those are only seasonal temporary streaks.
Wow, nice edge on a big number of matches! Congrats.

Btw It also depends on your betting style.

I do not like to bet on all the odds. I bet only odds three or higher, for this reason I like Draw, and thanks to CGmbet I found a system with a nice edge lasting a couple of years by now (yes, years, not months). The specific percent is difficult to state because I have some years better than others and so on

This feature was a specific request because... personally, I already was finding draw systems in this way, but i needed to export on excel files specifically built with this in mind, with specifics filters and formulas to find edge on a signicant numbers of bets.... Now I can clean my hard disk, thanks Mihai!

Another way/system I have to bet is home team with odds three or higher. It works every year. Very few bets for semester btw (max 150)

So, my draw system are smaller than your. It gives me a smaller number of bets per year (max 500 per semester, often no more than 300), but for now it works like a charm

I found also a good over 2.5 system with a nice profit but never betted, I suppose I'm allergic to those odds.

Another important thing i my opinion is the money management.
Once you have identified a good system that convince you, it is extremely important to be disciplined and follow a good money management in order to support the negative variance and if it is really good it also helps you maximize your profits.
For this reason I use a money management based on the kelly formula, I like it and it suits my style and it works also very well with the odds I usually bet.

That said: Holy Grail?
careful

as it may seem good,any system can behave differently than in the past, so be careful. It can be a temporary system o seasonal, you can never know it.
Btw my advice is to built a system with filters that have some logic behind.
With this tool you can activate random filters and find an edge, but I think the lasting filters will have a logic behind, a logic linked to the team psycology, last stats, number of goals, whatever, but my advice is to think a filter logically.

Finally, I think systems found with this tool increase chances and confidence of the forecast on the medium to long term so it's a good place to start!

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