Correct Score Calculator

If you have a suggestion how to improve please let me know. If more users will ask for the feature I will have no choice but to implement it.
DreamerXY
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Correct Score Calculator

Post by DreamerXY » Sat Jun 30, 2018 12:06 pm

Hello Community,
I've been involved in sports betting for a long time and have been using the cgmbet software for several years.
At this point I would like to apologize for my English. I am from Germany and use a translator. I hope you understand everything :)

I use cgmbet with my own Excel spreadsheet to calculate correct scores from a database.
In the end, I use these results to place my bets in the correct score market and over / under market.
At the betting exchange, I also use the scores for trading with very good results.

It takes more effort to import the database and current games from all leagues into my Excel spreadsheet to calculate the correct scores.
That's when I came up with the idea if Mihai could add this feature.
I have talked to Mihai that I will introduce my function here, and if there are any interested parties, Mihai may add this feature.

Here's an example

my calculated results:
Atletico GO Brasil de Pelotas 2: 1 2
Criciuma Sao Bento 1: 1
CSA Coritiba 2: 1
Figueirense Ponte Preta 1: 1
Guarani Ituiutaba 1: 0
Londrina Sampaio Correa 1: 1
Paysandu Fortaleza 1: 0 1
Juventude Vila Nova 0 1: 1
Oeste Avai 1: 1
Goias CRB 1 2: 1

Statement:
Atletico GO Brasil de Pelotas 2: 1 2 ------>>>> calaculated: 2:1 and 2:2
Goias CRB 1 2: 1 -------->>> calculated: 1:1 and 2:1
Juventude Vila Nova 0 1: 1 ------->>> calaculated: 0:1 and 1:1

actual results:You can check that:www.flashscore.com
Atletico GO 2 - 1 Brasil de Pelotas
Goias CRB 2 : 1
Criciuma Sao Bento -today 23h
CSA Coritiba 2 : 2
Figueirense Ponte Preta -today 23h
Guarani 1 - 1 Boa
Londrina Sampaio Correa -1.7.2018 -----> Final Result 1:1 (calculated 1:1)
Paysandu Fortaleza -1.7.2018 ----> Final Result 0:1 (calculated 0:1)
Juventude Vila Nova 0 : 1
Oeste Avai 1 : 0

You see, over / under bets are calculated very well and even some correct scores were right.

In some leagues the calculations are very good, Brazil, Italy ...

What do you mean to the whole?

Greets
Markus
Last edited by DreamerXY on Wed Jul 04, 2018 1:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Scherzzo
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Re: Correct Score Calculator

Post by Scherzzo » Sat Jun 30, 2018 4:33 pm

Hi Markus,

So far good results, well done.

Can you give some more detail, how long have you back tested the procedure? What was the ROI% over X amount of games? There is no detail what the procedure is so its difficult to comment. Feel free to private message me if you are not comfortable sharing.

Regards

Scherzzo

DreamerXY
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Posts: 10
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2018 2:27 pm

Re: Correct Score Calculator

Post by DreamerXY » Sun Jul 01, 2018 10:35 am

Hello Scherzzo,

Thank you for your message.
I do not use that as a strategy / system.
so I have not had a back test yet.
I use this feature to filter the daily games to get a feel of which game is going where.
The games must not be affected by red cards or injured players.

Of course it is also possible to tap the results directly or over / under bets. But unfortunately I have no statistics.

I'll be creating a statistic for the 2nd league in Brazil for Correct Scores and over / under last season.
Give me a little time :)

greeting
Markus

DreamerXY
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Posts: 10
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Re: Correct Score Calculator

Post by DreamerXY » Sun Jul 01, 2018 1:23 pm

Hello,

Here are the statistics for Season 2017 Brazil 2nd League.
All matches were scored from match day 7 - 38.

over / under Bets
bets: 282
won: 169
ROI%: 59,93%

Correct Scores:
bets: 519
won: 99

these are only estimated quotas
partly certainly too low

0:0, 9 hits @9 = 81 Units
1:0, 29 hits @7 = 203 Unis
0:1, 7 hits @7 = 49 Units
1:1, 26 hits @7 = 182 Units
2:0, 10 hits @9 = 90 Unis
2:1, 16 hits @10 = 160 Units
1:2, 2 hits @10 = 20 Units

Total: 785 Units - 519 Units = +266 Units

If I had a mistake in the calculation, that was not an intention.
Then please correction, thank you! :)

Greets
Markus

Scherzzo
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Posts: 276
Joined: Sun Nov 01, 2015 12:06 pm

Re: Correct Score Calculator

Post by Scherzzo » Mon Jul 02, 2018 6:32 pm

Hi Markus,

I appreciate the effort you put in but it doesn't explain the strategy. You have provided the results but not indicated how you came to the results. The results are impressive. To get public support you need to share the strategy as many others have in the past.

DreamerXY
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Posts: 10
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2018 2:27 pm

Re: Correct Score Calculator

Post by DreamerXY » Mon Jul 02, 2018 7:09 pm

Hi,

here the excel file...

https://www.file-upload.net/download-13212630/test.xlsx.html

I hope that helps you.
My Excel spreadsheet uses the database to calculate possible results. In the Excel table you can see the calculated results and the real results.

Greets
Markus

Scherzzo
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Posts: 276
Joined: Sun Nov 01, 2015 12:06 pm

Re: Correct Score Calculator

Post by Scherzzo » Tue Jul 03, 2018 2:31 pm

But how did you make the decisions in column N and O?

DreamerXY
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Re: Correct Score Calculator

Post by DreamerXY » Tue Jul 03, 2018 2:57 pm

column K and L are calculated with my Excel Spreadsheet.

Example:
column K = calculated Goals for Home Team
column L = calculated Goals for Away Team

Take line 14 in my Exel File:
Juventude ABC 1 2 0 1 3-0 1 2-3 goals 1:1 2:0
calculated goals for home: home team will score 1-2 goals
calculated goals for away: away team will score 0-1 goals

possible results: 1:0 1:1 2:0 and 2:1 (Final Result: 3:0)
over/under: no bet, difficult decision, as 2-3 goals were calculated

if calculated 0-2 Goals, take a under 2,5 Bet
if calculated 3 or more goals, take a over 2,5 Bet.
if calculated 2-3 goals, no bet

Column N is unimportant.
I only type over / under bets and correct scores

DreamerXY
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Posts: 10
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2018 2:27 pm

Re: Correct Score Calculator

Post by DreamerXY » Wed Jul 04, 2018 1:35 pm

Brazil Serie B - next Gameday 05.-08.07.2018

Atletico GO Ituiutaba 2 1 (calculated 2:1 - over2,5)Result 2:0
Avai Goias 2 1 2 (calculated 2:1 and 2:2 - over2,5)Result 0:1
Brasil de Pelotas CSA 1 1 (calculated 1:1 - under2,5)Result 0:2
Coritiba Paysandu 1 2 0 (calculated 1:0 and 2:0 - under2,5)Result 2:0
CRB Sao Bento 1 1 (calculated 1:1 - under2,5)Result 1:0
Criciuma Figueirense 1 1 2 (calculated 1:1 and 1:2 - no over/under Bet)Result 1:1
Oeste Guarani 1 2 1 (calculated 1:1 and 2:1 - no over/under Bet)Result 0:1
Ponte Preta Fortaleza 0 1 (calculated 0:1 - under2,5)Result 2:0
Sampaio Correa Juventude 1 1 (calculated 1:1 - under2,5)18.7.2018
Vila Nova Londrina 0 0 (calculated 0:0 - under2,5)Result 1:1

Greets
Markus
Last edited by DreamerXY on Mon Jul 09, 2018 7:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.

DrWho
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Re: Correct Score Calculator

Post by DrWho » Mon Jul 09, 2018 8:12 am

I haven't downloaded your spreadsheet as it's an unknown .exe file but if you don't include a probability for your scores I cannot see how you can tell if it represents value or not. For instance, if you consider 1:1 to be the most likely outcome of a match but the probability converts to 8.0 odds and you're being offered 7.0 odds you'll lose in the longrun.

Very often the most likely result is not the one to bet on but the one offering the greatest value is. This is pretty fundamental...

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