Archie - one of the most useful tools you'll find

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DrWho
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Archie - one of the most useful tools you'll find

Post by DrWho » Thu Dec 28, 2017 6:42 pm

Knowing how good your betting method is is very important but how do you gauge it ? Based on the ChiSquared Test, the Archie coefficient will give your past results some context with which to work.

You can see how to calculate your Archie Score here:

http://false-favourites.co.uk/blog/archie-score-how-to-check-your-selections-true-chance-of-winning/

Scherzzo
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Re: Archie - one of the most useful tools you'll find

Post by Scherzzo » Fri Dec 29, 2017 6:31 pm

Thanks man, I'll give it a read

Quantumunicorn
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Re: Archie - one of the most useful tools you'll find

Post by Quantumunicorn » Tue Jan 02, 2018 12:56 pm

DrWho wrote:
Thu Dec 28, 2017 6:42 pm
Knowing how good your betting method is is very important but how do you gauge it ? Based on the ChiSquared Test, the Archie coefficient will give your past results some context with which to work.

You can see how to calculate your Archie Score here:

http://false-favourites.co.uk/blog/archie-score-how-to-check-your-selections-true-chance-of-winning/

Thank you, I've just added the calculation to my bet tracker sheet, December say 124 total bets archie score 1,7923 so between 22% and 32% this is only luck :lol:

DrWho
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Re: Archie - one of the most useful tools you'll find

Post by DrWho » Mon Jan 08, 2018 7:06 am

It's good to realize that sometimes your method or system's results have a high probability of being produced by luck. I back off any system that's not at least 4.0 on Archie and don't bet as much. However, I really look for an Archie of over 7.0 to be really confident.

Don't forget, your 124 results is a very small sample so much could change over the next 1000 or so. High numbers are really necessary for any system to be bet with confidence. Too many people are happy with small samples and that is often their downfall....

Quantumunicorn
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Re: Archie - one of the most useful tools you'll find

Post by Quantumunicorn » Tue Jan 09, 2018 7:10 am

DrWho wrote:
Mon Jan 08, 2018 7:06 am
It's good to realize that sometimes your method or system's results have a high probability of being produced by luck. I back off any system that's not at least 4.0 on Archie and don't bet as much. However, I really look for an Archie of over 7.0 to be really confident.

Don't forget, your 124 results is a very small sample so much could change over the next 1000 or so. High numbers are really necessary for any system to be bet with confidence. Too many people are happy with small samples and that is often their downfall....
Yeah, theoretically your line of reasoning is right but what if you have an archie score of 1,79 for a whole year? Let's say on 1000/2000 bets... do you change your system? You're still winning....

DrWho
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Re: Archie - one of the most useful tools you'll find

Post by DrWho » Sun Jan 21, 2018 10:07 pm

Of course not, if you're happy with your system. It will probably be winning with a small margin and that's fine as long as you're willing to accept things could change. And by change, it could get better rather than worse.

Much depends on the logic the method is based on. If it's just curve fitting things will probably change for the worse but if it's really good logic I'd keep going...

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