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Manage events

Posted: Sun Nov 27, 2016 4:44 pm
by Mihai
A new and very important step forward for my new project.

I added the possibility to manage events.
What it is about, let-s make a short history:

1. All the initial goals percents are calculated based previous similar games in the past 5 years. Similar games means games where home and away teams had similar ELO ratings (actually inside a range you can set - for example +/- 25 points...etc)

2. Now, the percents may be affected by different events and you have 2 possibilities:
a. adjust manually the attack or defence strength for both team, depending on your information about the game
b. adjust automatically the attack or defence strength based on some predefined events, like "bad weather conditions" or "important home team defender is missing"

Any modification of attack or defence strength will lead to the change of percents for the goals based what you set for +5% variation. In order to preset what happen when the attack or defence changes with 5% click the first "Manage" button. At this moment there are not set any changes so any change over attack or defence has no effect. You have to do this by clicking "Manage" button.

By the way, please see how close are probabilities calculated to offered odds.
The events are for testing purposes. I do not know if it there was havy rain.

In order to apply point b. you have to predefine your events. Clck the second button "Manage" and you can do that. I added for testing purposes few events.


Re: Manage events

Posted: Sun Nov 27, 2016 7:43 pm
by _FlashGordon_
Errors in the code. Changes effect only the home team. When changing home-team attack strength or away team defence strength program works just as it should, ie changing the home team goal percentages. But when changing away team attack strength or home team defence strength which should affect away team goals the program takes correctly the starting numbers from away team but inserts the new calculated values to the home team fields.

Re: Manage events

Posted: Sun Nov 27, 2016 8:13 pm
by Mihai
Thank you.

I did not notice that but I am sure I have not checked all possible results.
I will see if there is a bug.

Re: Manage events

Posted: Mon Nov 28, 2016 5:40 pm
by Mihai
Yes, you were right. I found a bug there.

Sorry, it happens all the time on testing...I hope I fixed it.

Please report any other problem or unexpected results.

Re: Manage events

Posted: Tue Nov 29, 2016 8:50 am
by _FlashGordon_
Now fixed as far as programming goes.

I've studied how poisson affect the goal expectancies and at this moment my modifications are 0-5 goals. Will end up in manual correction if computer generated goal probabilities have values that does not support my presets.

For instance today France Ligue 1 game Lorient-Rennes where Rennes have 0% probability of scoring 3 and 5 goals. If I lower Rennes attacking power my preset would lower the value of 3 and 5 goals and now it has nothing to substract from so at the end of my preset Rennes has over 100% goals which need to be manually corrected before calculations work.

Rating maker Rennes goals:
0 - 5.4%
1 - 68.4%
2 - 15.7%
3 - 0%
4 - 10.5%
5 and more 0%

I suggest that to Events would be added mid-week international cup involvement (Champions league, Europa league, Copa Libertadores...) as especially away games can be taxing. Also a notifier of these Cup involvements in Upcoming would be great.