Rating based on goals explained

New add-on for the CGMBet software. This will allow you to create and test your own rating systems.
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Mihai
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Joined: Tue Oct 20, 2015 11:26 am

Rating based on goals explained

Post by Mihai » Wed Nov 29, 2017 7:47 am

One of my friend asked me to explain with a little bit more details how works the rating based on goals scored.

Let-s try:

Based on the parameters you selected (ELO interval, the seasons back...etc), the system gives you the probabilities for any number of goals. 0,1,2,3,4....
Based on these probabilities the system calculates the probabilities for any market. You have to compare the system probabilities with the odds offered.
Finally the system highlights the odds with value.

Like the following example: Based on the last 5 seasons, the system gives the goals probabilities then consider that Away and over 2.5 have value.
Yes, this is posted after the game (the result was 2-4) but the screen-shot was taken before the game with many days - please note there are no odds yet for many markets :)

Let-s notice also how close are the odds calculated by system to bookie odds.

Image

Ok, but the probabilities are calculated based on historical results. My intention was to offer a tool to adjust the probabilities based on late events.
For example we just found that the goalkeeper or centre-left defender has an affair with the centre right defender girlfriend :) and all have an affair with the manager girl. This, for sure will make their defence weaker.....
Or we just learned that will be a heavy rain at the time of game. This for sure will affect attacks of the both teams. And so on.

As I said, I created some tools - take a look to those buttons: "Home team attack", "Home team defence"....
You can increase or decrease attack or defence. For example in the first example (with girlfriend) will decrease the defence with 10% lets say. Will notice that the probabilities will adjust accordingly and probably will
increase the probabilities for 1,2,3, goals but will decrease the probabilities for 0 goals.

I offered also the possibility to save some common situations. See the picture:
Important striker is missing, heavy rain...etc. By selecting this option, automatically all the rules will change based on what you saved - please see the following picture.
For example if you select "Bad weather conditions", the home attack will be decreased by 5%, away team attack with 10% ...This is just an example. You can set what you want here.

Image

Ok, let-s return to the main screen. I said that you can increase/decrease the attack/defence strength. But if we increase the attack with 10% how will affect this the probabilities to be scored
0,1,2,3,,,goals? Even here I gave the power to final user to decide.

For example, in the following picture I set how will be affected the probabilities to score 0,1,2,3..goals for each (+) or (-) 5% move of the attack strength.
As you can see I set as follows: the probability to be scored 0 goals will be decreased by 3% but will be increased the probabilities for 1 goal (2%) and 2 goals (1%).
Also, if the attack strength will be decreased by 5% the probability to be scored 0 goals will be increased by 3% but will bede creased the probabilities for 1 goal (2%) and 2 goals (1%).
This is just an example. You should try your own strategies here.

It is very important to keep a zero sum (please note the green zone).

Now I hope it is more clear what happens when you select "Heavy rain" for example. The attack/defence are affected with some percent then the probabilities for goals are affected based on the below screen.

Image
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Scherzzo
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Joined: Sun Nov 01, 2015 12:06 pm

Re: Rating based on goals explained

Post by Scherzzo » Wed Nov 29, 2017 6:52 pm

Hi Mihai,

Only saw this now... Thanks!

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