Elo ratings and finding value

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Elo ratings and finding value

Post by beugeney » Fri Jan 26, 2018 4:48 pm

Hi, does anyone know a method of using the team elo ratings to calculate odds for a fixture?

For example the match Fortuna vs Emmen in Dutch Eerste league; Fortuna have a rating of 1702 against Emmen's 1607. Can I use these ratings to calculate percentages and therefore odds?

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Re: Elo ratings and finding value

Post by Mihai » Sat Jan 27, 2018 8:46 am

I am pretty sure it is not possible to calculate odds from ELO rating directly.

What we can do is to use RATING section to see the probabilities resulted for each game.

The probabilities are calculated based on ELO and recent form but if we set ELO influence at 100% (on the bottom left) the probabilities will be calculated only based on ELO. Of course we have to set also ELO rating interval +/-. For example if set this value for 50 will be considered all the games where home team and away team had +/- 50 ELO points difference.

After we know the probabilities we can calculate approximetive odds with the formula odd=100/prob

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Re: Elo ratings and finding value

Post by JarredMo » Sun Feb 11, 2018 1:58 pm

That's really interesting, Mihai. Do you think that would be accurate enough to base your decisions on?

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