Premier League Home win AI based

Here you may present your strategy. Comments and suggestions are welcomed.
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webbossing
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Premier League Home win AI based

Post by webbossing » Fri Jul 26, 2019 6:47 pm

I am working on a prediction model for home wins in the premier league.
Now I consider the follow data in the model, based on FT last 3 games H vs A:
ball possession
over 1,5 goals
points per game
goals scored
goals received
shots
shots on target
GG
and all the extra data I get in Upcoming section (team, form, etc)

Data I have in the model now is 2017 and 2018 data.
The model predicts a percentage (chance) if home will win. That I turn in to odds and check if there is a value.
If I use the model on the 2019 games (only bet on value games) there is a profitable strategy.

My question is, what other data/variables out of CGM you would consider? So I can put it in the model.
When the PL starts coming season I will share back the predictions on this forum.

Thanks!!
Last edited by webbossing on Sun Jul 28, 2019 7:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.

webbossing
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Re: Premier League Home win AI based, help needed

Post by webbossing » Sun Jul 28, 2019 8:52 am

My model is ready to use. I have done a back test over the seasons 2016/2017, 2017/2018 and 2018/2019.
Only play matches after round 6.
Roi is 18,62%.

I'll drop the selections here when round 7 starts of the PL.

webbossing
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Re: Premier League Home win AI based

Post by webbossing » Tue Jul 30, 2019 8:24 pm

I have tried to create the same model for Spain. Only there is no value.
Anyone experience with what kind of data or number of matches to include in the data?
Last 3 H vs A doesn't work there for me.

poveiro73
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Joined: Mon Jun 25, 2018 12:15 am

Re: Premier League Home win AI based

Post by poveiro73 » Sun Aug 11, 2019 12:28 pm

hi,
how do you filter this strategy in cgmbet software for look this parametrs??

can you send some picture?

regards

webbossing
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Joined: Wed Sep 06, 2017 6:27 am

Re: Premier League Home win AI based

Post by webbossing » Sat Oct 12, 2019 12:41 pm

It is no filter in CGM Bet. I export the data and put in a machine learning tool.
I was on vacation, so I'll start with round 9 next week.

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