Kelly Criterion for betting

Here you may present your strategy. Comments and suggestions are welcomed.
Post Reply
Scherzzo
Moderator
Posts: 276
Joined: Sun Nov 01, 2015 12:06 pm

Kelly Criterion for betting

Post by Scherzzo » Sat Dec 26, 2015 8:59 am

HI Mihai,

I've recently started looking at staking plans for my betting and I've come across the Kelly Criterion For Betting. Within the formula there is an ask to calculate the % of probability of the win/draw etc. My question is that can I use the % in the rating system for this?

For example see below match. Macclesfield are 2.53 to win the match and on the rating system it states there is a 53.76 % chance of this happening. Based on kellys system it states I should stake 24% of my overall pot on this game. To me this seems like a lot.

Macclesfield Tranmere 53.76 25.21 21.03 49.47 50.53 2.53 3.42 2.97 2.03 1.87 1301 1158 276 -8 -9

http://www.pinnaclesports.com/en/bettin ... or-betting

Let me know what you think....

User avatar
Mihai
Moderator
Posts: 1050
Joined: Tue Oct 20, 2015 11:26 am

Re: Kelly Criterion for betting

Post by Mihai » Sat Dec 26, 2015 8:47 pm

I know that one of the punters wish, looking back, is would have bet all your money on winning games and 1 cent on the loosing games.

Kelly criteria is good on my opinion but not to be applied 100% the formula result. This is very dangerous. The income may be very big but also the fall may be very fast and most of time fatal. To play 24% on a single game is not acceptable at all.

It is much better to apply different percent of Kelly like 25%, 10% etc.

Anyway you should play Kelly only if you are an experienced player and have enough info to make a correct estimation of the probabilities. Otherwise stay away or maybe play as I said 5-10% of the formula value. Just to see how it works.
www.cgmbet.com

Scherzzo
Moderator
Posts: 276
Joined: Sun Nov 01, 2015 12:06 pm

Re: Kelly Criterion for betting

Post by Scherzzo » Sun Dec 27, 2015 8:11 am

Thanks Mihai, appreciate your response.

User avatar
Hustler
New
Posts: 1
Joined: Sun Jan 06, 2019 8:56 pm
Location: Finland

Re: Kelly Criterion for betting

Post by Hustler » Tue Jan 08, 2019 10:29 pm

I have sometimes too big difference for markets and Kelly offers me also something like 20% stake.
Many many times i was right and markets wrong. After that kicked myself why didn't bet this 20%!!
But years have learned me and usually my high risk bet is 2.5-2.8% of bankroll, normally 0.5-2. If i'm confident Kelly5, if not Kelly10.
Livebet is different if i'm in stand and bets could be very high a specially in lower leagues when you have friends in field :lol:
I'm a simple mind, always need an explanation..

Post Reply